THE SECRET OF GEORGE SOROS!
He paid his dues by learning the business from the
bump-and-grind world of hard-core, old-school.
He has the international perspective.
(Picture of George Soros)
He delivers big on giving real chunks of his hard-earned plunder
to worthy causes.
Between 1979 and 2011, Soros gave away over $8 billion to human rights, public health, and education causes.
Between 1979 and 2011, Soros gave away over $8 billion to human rights, public health, and education causes.
George is the man. He and the brave few…took the short
position on and just before the 1992. BLACK WEDNESDAY suck-job Great British Blunder by the
then Conservative government. Ostensibly in Power, trying to look like they knew what they were doing. A full-on example of reflexive, semiotics in action. And Mr. Soros took the information provided by one man who detected the vulnerability of an entire nation's sovereign currency, and Mr. Soros used the cosmetic appearances of FOOLISH FOOLS to leverage himself over 1 billion pounds of sheer, delightful, profit...and all of it done in the space of a few "short" days.
By having the guts to say “YES” to what could be, for most
of us, too big a gamble…George matched insight with courage, and the pull to
pony-up with the heavy-ready…and he sold short the British Pound..
George literally pounded the Pound.
Finally, the UK withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, devaluing the pound, earning Soros an estimated $1.1 billion. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England".[27] In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.
On Monday, October 26, 1992, The Times quoted Soros as saying: "Our total position by Black Wednesday had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that. In fact, when Norman Lamont said just before the devaluation that he would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused because that was about how much we wanted to sell."
(source: Wikipedia)
YouTube: SOROS PREDICTS GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE!
(Picture of George Soros)
Victor Niederhoffer said of Soros: "Most of all, George believed even then in a mixed economy, one with a strong central international government to correct for the excesses of self-interest."
Soros claims to draw a distinction between being a participant in the market and working to change the rules that market participants must follow. According to Mahathir bin Mohamed, Prime Minister of Malaysia from July 1981 to October 2003, Soros – as the hedge fund chief of Quantum – may have been partially responsible for the economic crash in 1997 of East Asian markets when the Thai currency relinquished its peg to the US dollar. According to Mahathir, in the three years leading to the crash, Soros invested in short-term speculative investment in East Asian stock markets and real estate, then divested with "indecent haste" at the first signs of currency devaluation.[83] Soros replied, saying that Mahathir was using him "as a scapegoat for his own mistakes", that Mahathir's promises to ban currency trading (which Malaysian finance officials hastily retracted) were "a recipe for disaster" and that Mahathir "is a menace to his own country".[84]
In an interview regarding the late-2000s recession, Soros referred to it as the most serious crisis since the 1930s. According to Soros, market fundamentalism with its assumption that markets will correct themselves with no need for government intervention in financial affairs has been "some kind of an ideological excess". In Soros' view, the markets' moods – a "mood" of the markets being a prevailing bias or optimism/pessimism with which the markets look at reality – "actually can reinforce themselves so that there are these initially self-reinforcing but eventually unsustainable and self-defeating boom/bust sequences or bubbles".[85]
In reaction to the late-2000s recession, he founded the Institute for New Economic Thinking in October 2009. This is a think tank composed of international economic, business and financial experts, mandated to investigate radical new approaches to organising the international economic and financial system.
Soros' writings focus heavily on the concept of reflexivity, where the biases of individuals enter into market transactions, potentially changing the perception of fundamentals of the economy. Soros argues that different principles apply in markets depending on whether they are in a "near to equilibrium" or a "far from equilibrium" state. He argues that, when markets are rising or falling rapidly, they are typically marked by disequilibrium rather than equilibrium, and that the conventional economic theory of the market (the 'efficient market hypothesis') does not apply in these situations. Soros has popularized the concepts of dynamic disequilibrium, static disequilibrium, and near-equilibrium conditions.[21]
He has stated that his own financial success has been attributable to the edge accorded by his understanding of the action of the reflexive effect.
The following brief description is a good example of cause-and-effect, and the way this effect then becomes another source of cause, and so in turn creates effect, and so on:
This was further amplified by public policy. In the US, home loans were guaranteed by the Federal government. Many national governments saw home ownership as a positive outcome and so introduced grants for first-time home buyers and other financial subsidies, such as the exemption of a primary residence from capital gains taxation. These further encouraged house purchases, leading to further price rises and further relaxation of lending standards.
The concept of reflexivity attempts to explain why markets moving from one equilibrium state to another tend to overshoot or undershoot.(Source: Wikipedia)
MORE ABOUT GEORGE:
Oh, he went on the make money. Along the way, billions, sticking to him like
luck to a leprechaun: George definitely
has a rainbow leading to many pots of gold.
Here is a bit of the fact spread-sheet dealing with the
FAMOUS British Sterling short sale by Mr. Soros and his currency conquistadors.
Currency speculation
On September 16, 1992, Black Wednesday, Soros' fund sold short more than $10 billion in pounds,[22] profiting from the UK government's reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency.Finally, the UK withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, devaluing the pound, earning Soros an estimated $1.1 billion. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England".[27] In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.
On Monday, October 26, 1992, The Times quoted Soros as saying: "Our total position by Black Wednesday had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that. In fact, when Norman Lamont said just before the devaluation that he would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused because that was about how much we wanted to sell."
(source: Wikipedia)
YouTube: SOROS PREDICTS GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE!
(Picture of George Soros)
Public predictions
Soros' book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets (May 2008), described a "superbubble" that had built up over the past 25 years and was ready to collapse. This was the third in a series of books he has written that have predicted disaster. As he states:
I have a record of crying wolf ... I did it first in The
Alchemy of Finance (in 1987), then in The Crisis of Global Capitalism
(in 1998) and now in this book. So it's three books predicting disaster.
(After) the boy cried wolf three times ... the wolf really came.[34]
He
ascribes his own success to being able to recognize when his predictions are
wrong:.
“I'm only rich because I know when I'm
wrong ... I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very
often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are
wrong you have to fight or [take] flight. When [I] make the decision, the
backache goes away.”[34]
In February 2009, Soros said the world financial system had effectively
disintegrated, adding that there was no prospect of a near-term resolution to
the crisis.[35]
"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system ... It was placed
on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are
anywhere near a bottom."(SOURCE: Wikipedia)
View of problems
in the free market system
Despite working as an investor and currency trader, Soros argues that the
current system of financial speculation undermines healthy economic development
in many underdeveloped countries. He blames many of the world's problems on the
failures inherent in what he characterizes as market fundamentalism. His opposition to many
aspects of globalization has made him a controversial figure.Victor Niederhoffer said of Soros: "Most of all, George believed even then in a mixed economy, one with a strong central international government to correct for the excesses of self-interest."
Soros claims to draw a distinction between being a participant in the market and working to change the rules that market participants must follow. According to Mahathir bin Mohamed, Prime Minister of Malaysia from July 1981 to October 2003, Soros – as the hedge fund chief of Quantum – may have been partially responsible for the economic crash in 1997 of East Asian markets when the Thai currency relinquished its peg to the US dollar. According to Mahathir, in the three years leading to the crash, Soros invested in short-term speculative investment in East Asian stock markets and real estate, then divested with "indecent haste" at the first signs of currency devaluation.[83] Soros replied, saying that Mahathir was using him "as a scapegoat for his own mistakes", that Mahathir's promises to ban currency trading (which Malaysian finance officials hastily retracted) were "a recipe for disaster" and that Mahathir "is a menace to his own country".[84]
In an interview regarding the late-2000s recession, Soros referred to it as the most serious crisis since the 1930s. According to Soros, market fundamentalism with its assumption that markets will correct themselves with no need for government intervention in financial affairs has been "some kind of an ideological excess". In Soros' view, the markets' moods – a "mood" of the markets being a prevailing bias or optimism/pessimism with which the markets look at reality – "actually can reinforce themselves so that there are these initially self-reinforcing but eventually unsustainable and self-defeating boom/bust sequences or bubbles".[85]
In reaction to the late-2000s recession, he founded the Institute for New Economic Thinking in October 2009. This is a think tank composed of international economic, business and financial experts, mandated to investigate radical new approaches to organising the international economic and financial system.
Education and beliefs
His philosophical outlook is influenced by Karl Popper, under whom he studied at the London School of Economics (LSE). His Open Society Institute is named after Popper's two volume work, The Open Society and Its Enemies, and Soros' ongoing philosophical commitment to the principle of fallibilism (that anything he believes may in fact be wrong, and is therefore to be questioned and improved) stems from Popper's philosophy
Reflexivity, financial markets,
and economic theory
Soros' writings focus heavily on the concept of reflexivity, where the biases of individuals enter into market transactions, potentially changing the perception of fundamentals of the economy. Soros argues that different principles apply in markets depending on whether they are in a "near to equilibrium" or a "far from equilibrium" state. He argues that, when markets are rising or falling rapidly, they are typically marked by disequilibrium rather than equilibrium, and that the conventional economic theory of the market (the 'efficient market hypothesis') does not apply in these situations. Soros has popularized the concepts of dynamic disequilibrium, static disequilibrium, and near-equilibrium conditions.[21]
He has stated that his own financial success has been attributable to the edge accorded by his understanding of the action of the reflexive effect.
The following brief description is a good example of cause-and-effect, and the way this effect then becomes another source of cause, and so in turn creates effect, and so on:
Reflexivity is based on three main ideas:[21]
- Reflexivity is best observed under special conditions where investor bias grows and spreads throughout the investment arena. Examples of factors that may give rise to this bias include (a) equity leveraging or (b) the trend-following habits of speculators.
- Reflexivity appears intermittently since it is most likely to be revealed under certain conditions; i.e., the character of the equilibrium process is best considered in terms of probabilities.
- Investors' observation of and participation in the capital markets may at times influence valuations and fundamental conditions or outcomes.
This was further amplified by public policy. In the US, home loans were guaranteed by the Federal government. Many national governments saw home ownership as a positive outcome and so introduced grants for first-time home buyers and other financial subsidies, such as the exemption of a primary residence from capital gains taxation. These further encouraged house purchases, leading to further price rises and further relaxation of lending standards.
The concept of reflexivity attempts to explain why markets moving from one equilibrium state to another tend to overshoot or undershoot.(Source: Wikipedia)
(following charts from Gurufocus.com)
George Soros Latest Trades :
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Date
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Action
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Comment
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Current Shares
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2012-12-31
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3.09%
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$33.26 - $40.17
($36.68) |
$ 46.65
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27%
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Add 435.61%
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8,125,251
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2012-12-31
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0.95%
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$16.09 - $19.27
($17.39) |
$ 23.03
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32%
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New holding, 4144200 sh.
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4,144,200
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2012-12-31
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0.9%
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$101.65 - $109.34
($104.92) |
$ 127.64
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22%
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Add 49.59%
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2,088,697
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2012-12-31
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0.87%
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$39.29 - $44.53
($41.83) |
$ 50.2
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20%
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2,569,000
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2012-12-31
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Buy
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0.75%
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$57.34 - $75.49
($64.09) |
$ 74.38
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16%
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New holding, 950000 sh.
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950,000
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2012-12-31
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0.69%
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$56.67 - $62.74
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9%
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2012-12-31
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755,655
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2012-12-31
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2012-12-31
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$ 46.48
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2012-12-31
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2012-12-31
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2012-12-31
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New holding, 1531000 sh.
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2012-12-31
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529,800
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2012-12-31
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2012-12-31
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2012-12-31
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$ 24.94
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1,500,000
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2012-12-31
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0.32%
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$36.45 - $46.33
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$ 48
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New holding, 575000 sh.
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575,000
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2012-12-31
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$ 34.66
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2012-12-31
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0.29%
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$53.64 - $59.37
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$ 64.62
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New holding, 425000 sh.
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425,000
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2012-12-31
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0.26%
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$53.69 - $64.95
($58.21) |
$ 65.02
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12%
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New holding, 370500 sh.
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370,500
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George Soros's Profile:George Soros is known for the unmatched success of his Quantum Fund. A hedge fund guru, he is recognized for having the best performance record of any investment fund in the world over its 26-year history. A mere $1000 invested in 1969 when Soros established the Quantum Fund would have been worth $4 million by the year 2000. During that time he achieved a cumulative 32% annual return.George Soros's Performance:
Average Annual Return of
http://www.georgesoros.com/
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George Soros's News:
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Philanthropy
Main article: List of projects supported
by George Soros
Picture above: George Soros (left) and James H. Billington at the Library of Congress in Washington D.C.
on January 22, 2001 to discuss the views expressed in Soros' new book, Open
Society: Reforming Global Capitalism.
Soros has been active as a philanthropist since the 1970s, when he began
providing funds to help black students attend the University of Cape Town in apartheid
South Africa,[46]
and began funding dissident movements behind the iron
curtain.Soros' philanthropic funding includes efforts to promote non-violent democratization in the post-Soviet states. These efforts, mostly in Central and Eastern Europe, occur primarily through the Open Society Institute (OSI) and national Soros Foundations, which sometimes go under other names (such as the Stefan Batory Foundation in Poland). As of 2003, PBS estimated that he had given away a total of $4 billion.[39] The OSI says it has spent about $500 million annually in recent years.
In 2003, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker wrote in the foreword of Soros' book The Alchemy of Finance:
George Soros has made his mark as an enormously successful speculator, wise enough to largely withdraw when still way ahead of the game. The bulk of his enormous winnings is now devoted to encouraging transitional and emerging nations to become "open societies", open not only in the sense of freedom of commerce but – more important – tolerant of new ideas and different modes of thinking and behavior.[47]
Time magazine in 2007 cited two specific projects – $100 million toward Internet infrastructure for regional Russian universities, and $50 million for the Millennium Promise to eradicate extreme poverty in Africa – while noting that Soros had given $742 million to projects in the U.S., and given away a total of more than $7 billion.[48]
Other notable projects have included aid to scientists and universities throughout Central and Eastern Europe, help to civilians during the siege of Sarajevo, and Transparency International. Soros also pledged an endowment of €420 million to the Central European University (CEU). The Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus and his microfinance bank Grameen Bank received support from the OSI.
According to National Review[49] the Open Society Institute gave $20,000 in September 2002 to the Defense Committee of Lynne Stewart, the lawyer who has defended alleged terrorists in court and was sentenced to 2⅓ years in prison for "providing material support for a terrorist conspiracy" via a press conference for a client. An OSI spokeswoman said "it appeared to us at that time that there was a right-to-counsel issue worthy of our support."
In September 2006 Soros pledged $50 million to the Millennium Promise, led by economist Jeffrey Sachs to provide educational, agricultural, and medical aid to help villages in Africa enduring poverty. The New York Times termed this endeavor a "departure" for Soros whose philanthropic focus had been on fostering democracy and good government, but Soros noted that most poverty resulted from bad governance.[50]
He received honorary doctoral degrees from the New School for Social Research (New York), the University of Oxford in 1980, the Corvinus University of Budapest, and Yale University in 1991. Soros also received the Yale International Center for Finance Award from the Yale School of Management in 2000 as well as the Laurea Honoris Causa, the highest honor of the University of Bologna in 1995.
Soros played a role in the peaceful transition from communism to capitalism in Hungary (1984–89)[7] and provided Europe's largest-ever higher education endowment to Central European University in Budapest.[51] Later, the Open Society Institute's programs in Georgia were considered by Russian and Western observers to have been crucial in the success of the Rose Revolution.
In the United States, he donated large sums of money in an effort to defeat President George W. Bush's bid for re-election in 2004. In 2010, he donated $1 million in support of Proposition 19, which would have legalized marijuana in the state of California. He was an initial donor to the Center for American Progress, and he continues to support the organization through the Open Society Foundations. The Open Society Institute has active programs in more than 60 countries around the world with total expenditures currently averaging approximately $600 million a year.[52]
He played a significant role in the peaceful transition from communism to capitalism in Hungary (1984–89)[7]—which he himself proclaimed was being exaggerated and provided Europe's largest higher education endowment to Central European University in Budapest.[9] Soros is also the chairman of the Open Society Institute.
Political donations and activism
United States
In an interview with The Washington Post on November 11, 2003, Soros said that removing President George W. Bush from office was the "central focus of my life" and "a matter of life and death". He said he would sacrifice his entire fortune to defeat President Bush "if someone guaranteed it".[53] Soros gave $3 million to the Center for American Progress, $2.5 million to MoveOn.org, and $20 million[54] to America Coming Together. These groups worked to support Democrats in the 2004 election. On September 28, 2004 he dedicated more money to the campaign and kicked off his own multi-state tour with a speech: Why We Must Not Re-elect President Bush[55] delivered at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. The online transcript to this speech received many hits after Dick Cheney accidentally referred to FactCheck.org as "factcheck.com" in the Vice Presidential debate, causing the owner of that domain to redirect all traffic to Soros' site.[56]When Soros was asked in 2006 about his statement in The Age of Fallibility that "the main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States", he responded that "it happens to coincide with the prevailing opinion in the world. And I think that's rather shocking for Americans to hear. The United States sets the agenda for the world. And the rest of the world has to respond to that agenda. By declaring a 'war on terror' after September 11, we set the wrong agenda for the world. ... when you wage war, you inevitably create innocent victims."[57]
Soros was not a large donor to US political causes until the 2004 presidential election, but according to the Center for Responsive Politics, during the 2003–2004 election cycle, Soros donated $23,581,000 to various 527 groups dedicated to defeating President Bush. A 527 group is a type of American tax-exempt organization named after a section of the United States tax code, 26 U.S.C. § 527.
After Bush's re-election, Soros and other donors backed a new political fundraising group called Democracy Alliance, which supports progressive causes and the formation of a stronger progressive infrastructure in America.[58]
In August 2009, Soros donated $35 million to the state of New York to be ear-marked for under-privileged children and given to parents who had benefit cards at the rate of $200 per child aged 3 through 17, with no limit as to the number of children that qualified. An additional $140 million was put into the fund by the state of New York from money they had received from the 2009 federal recovery act.[19]
ABOUT THE POT
On October 26, 2010, Soros donated $1 million, the largest donation in
the campaign, to the Drug Policy Alliance to fund Proposition
19, that would have legalized marijuana in the state of California
if it had passed in the November 2, 2010 elections.[59]In October 2011 a Reuters story titled "Soros: not a funder of Wall Street protests" was published after several commentators pointed out errors in an earlier Reuters story headlined "Who's behind the Wall St. protests?"with a lede stating that the Occupy Wall Street movement "may have benefited indirectly from the largesse of one of the world's richest men [Soros]". Reuters' follow-up article also reported a Soros spokesperson and Adbusters' co-founder Kalle Lasn both saying that Adbusters – which was the catalyst for the first Occupy Wall Street protests – had never received any contributions from Soros, contrary to Reuters' earlier story which reported that "indirect financial links" existed between the two as late as 2010.[60][61]
On September 27, 2012, Soros announced that he was donating $1 million to the "SuperPAC" Priorities USA Action.[62]
Central and Eastern Europe
According to Waldemar A. Nielsen, an authority on American philanthropy,[63] "[Soros] has undertaken ... nothing less than to open up the once-closed Communist societies of Eastern Europe to a free flow of ideas and scientific knowledge from the ouside world".[64] From 1979, as an advocate of 'open societies', Soros financially supported dissidents including Poland's Solidarity movement, Charter 77 in Czechoslovakia and Andrei Sakharov in the Soviet Union.[46] In 1984, he founded his first Open Society Institute in Hungary with a budget of $3 million.[65]Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Soros' funding has continued to play an important role in the former Soviet sphere. His funding of pro-democratic programs in Georgia was considered by Russian and Western observers to be crucial to the success of the Rose Revolution, although Soros has said that his role has been "greatly exaggerated".[66] Alexander Lomaia, Secretary of the Georgian Security Council and former Minister of Education and Science, is a former Executive Director of the Open Society Georgia Foundation (Soros Foundation), overseeing a staff of 50 and a budget of $2,500,000.[67]
Former Georgian Foreign Minister Salomé Zourabichvili wrote that institutions like the Soros Foundation were the cradle of democratisation and that all the NGOs which gravitated around the Soros Foundation undeniably carried the revolution. She opines that after the revolution the Soros Foundation and the NGOs were integrated into power.[68]
Some Soros-backed pro-democracy initiatives have been banned in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.[69] Ercis Kurtulus, head of the Social Transparency Movement Association (TSHD) in Turkey, said in an interview that "Soros carried out his will in Ukraine and Georgia by using these NGOs ... Last year Russia passed a special law prohibiting NGOs from taking money from foreigners. I think this should be banned in Turkey as well."[70] In 1997, Soros had to close his foundation in Belarus after it was fined $3 million by the government for "tax and currency violations". According to The New York Times, the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has been widely criticized in the West and in Russia for his efforts to control the Belarus Soros Foundation and other independent NGOs and to suppress civil and human rights. Soros called the fines part of a campaign to "destroy independent society".[71]
In June 2009, Soros donated $100m to Central Europe and Eastern Europe to counter the impact of the economic crisis on the poor, voluntary groups and non-government organisations.[72]
Africa
The Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa is a Soros-affiliated organization.[73] Its director for Zimbabwe is Godfrey Kanyenze, who also directs the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), which was the main force behind the founding of the Movement for Democratic Change, the principal indigenous organization promoting regime change in Zimbabwe.Drug policy reform
Soros has funded worldwide efforts to promote drug policy reform. In 2008, Soros donated $400,000 to help fund a successful ballot measure in Massachusetts known as the Massachusetts Sensible Marijuana Policy Initiative which decriminalized possession of less than 1 oz (28g) of marijuana in the state. Soros has also funded similar measures in California, Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Nevada and Maine.[74] Among the drug decriminalization groups that have received funding from Soros are the Lindesmith Center and Drug Policy Foundation.[75] Soros donated $1.4 million to publicity efforts to support California's Proposition 5 in 2008, a failed ballot measure that would have expanded drug rehabilitation programs as alternatives to prison for persons convicted of non-violent drug-related offenses.[76]In October 2010, Soros donated $1 million to support California's Proposition 19.[77]
According to remarks in an interview in October 2009, it is Soros' opinion that marijuana is less addictive but not appropriate for use by children and students. He himself has not used marijuana for years.[78]
Death and dying
The Project on Death in America, active from 2001 to 2003, was one of the Open Society Institute's projects, which sought to "understand and transform the culture and experience of dying and bereavement".[79] In 1994, Soros delivered a speech in which he reported that he had offered to help his mother, a member of the Hemlock Society, commit suicide.[80] In the same speech, he also endorsed the Oregon Death with Dignity Act,[81] the campaign which he helped fund.[82]
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THE
ROLE OF SEMIOTICS
IN THE WORK OF GEORGE SOROS
For
every student of cause and effect, and therefore of “marketing” and “sales,” we
can study the effect of the design of “something” to create a specific effect. Further, we can study the relationship of
people, places and things, the actual physical arrangement of shape, colour,
texture, size, and more, to create specific effects in the behaviour of people.
When
you want to influence decision, it is important to understand how to use push
and pull forces to move people to make the decision you want them to make, and
to NOT make the decision you do NOT want them to make.
The
effect of design on telling people what they can and cannot do in any given
location is well known to those cunning operatives of engineering social
behaviour. Obviously the art and science
of propaganda has it’s place in the process of shaping behaviour and
perception.
If
I tell you a lie in such a way that it is convenient for you to believe my lie,
then much can be done within the context of the lie to create the outcomes that
I want.
An
example of this is when a woman flatters a man, and uses coaxing and suggestive
word, tone of voice, body language and the small, extra touches of a slight,
lingering physical contact, perhaps a hand resting, for a moment, on the breast
area, or the shoulder, or the arm. Perhaps
to pull at a “piece of lint” stuck to the suit jacket of the man.
The
man may well know that the woman is using subtle and not-so-subtle signals to
create an invitation to further intimacy. Yet, if he is old, fat, balding and so on, and
the woman is young, healthy, attractive…he may willing swallow the pretence,
the lie, and trade his self-honesty for a few moments of intimate pleasure.
We
are all manipulated by image and pretence. It is the stuff of commerce. What Mr. Soros figured out was how the
financial markets starts to believe it’s own lies. Like a politician who begins to believe his
own press-clippings.
And
as Mr. Soros began to understand the deep and seductive allure of the Big Lie
being told everyday by his colleagues in the world of money, he began to see
the push and pull of the lie. His secret
is that he can see the lie for what it is, and instead of surrendering his
belief to the lie, and becoming a lie-believer, he uses the forces at work with
the lie to make excellent trades. So he
makes more money than he looses.
And
when Mr. Soros makes more money than he looses, and spends less money than he
keeps, he becomes one of the world’s wealthiest men.
Mr.
Soros understands semiology at the meta level. This is part of his great secret. He sees how the appearance of something shapes
what people feel they can do, what they are compelled to do. This is clearly demonstrated in the Sterling
Pound crisis of 1992, and how the appearance of something created behaviour
that was consistent to the message of the appearance of something.
Like
a physical building let’s you know what is expected of you, what is
permissible, what your actions should be like, and what your value is in
context to the building and the surrounding landscape…so to the way the market “looks”
let’s you know what is expected of you, and what your worth is, and will be.
So
panic creates panic. Excitement of
imminent profit excites further excitement of further profit. The appearance of success makes us feel like
we are a success. We start to believe
our own press-clippings. We become
extremely deluded. And when we are
warned, we often ignore the substance of the warning. It is easier to believe the young, beautiful, smart
woman really is attracted to me, the fat, old, balding guy.
When
the financial market is smiling at you, and touching you a bit coyly, with that
twinkle in it’s eye, and a come-hither gesture…you know you are going to get
bleeped, and good.
Mr.
Soros secret is that he caught on to this allure, long ago, and learned how the
inside part of “The Force” worked, and how to play the players. His secret is he knows how to read the signs
BEFORE the signs are there.
IF
you really want to learn something, you study those who can explain, and those
who have lived IT. If you want to know
how to get somewhere, ask the person who has been where you want to go…perhaps
the person who is just coming back from where you want to go.
AFTER THIS NEXT SECTION ON REFLEXIVITY, AND THE REFERENCES, THERE IS SOME REALLY COOL NOTES ON MR. SOROS, SO KEEP GOING!
The following part of the article is a series of notes giving further definition to REFLEXIVITY.
Reflexivity...
(Source: Wikipedia)...refers to circular relationships between
cause and effect. A reflexive relationship is bidirectional with both the cause
and the effect affecting one another in a situation that does not render both
functions causes and effects. In sociology,
reflexivity therefore comes to mean an act of self-reference where examination
or action "bends back on", refers to, and affects the entity
instigating the action or examination.To this extent it commonly refers to the capacity of an agent to recognize forces of socialization and alter their place in the social structure. A low level of reflexivity would result in an individual shaped largely by their environment (or 'society'). A high level of social reflexivity would be defined by an individual shaping their own norms, tastes, politics, desires, and so on. This is similar to the notion of autonomy. (See also: structure and agency, social mobility)
In Economics reflexivity refers to the self-reinforcing effect of market sentiment, whereby rising prices attract buyers whose actions drive prices higher still until the process becomes unsustainable and the same process operates in reverse leading to a catastrophic collapse in prices.
It is an instance of a feedback loop.
Overview
In social theory, reflexivity
may occur when theories in a discipline should apply equally forcefully to the
discipline itself, for example in the case that the theories of knowledge
construction in the field of sociology of scientific knowledge
should apply equally to knowledge construction by sociology of scientific
knowledge practitioners, or when the subject matter of a discipline should
apply equally well to the individual practitioners of that discipline, for
example when psychological theory should explain the psychological mental
processes of psychologists. More broadly, reflexivity is considered to occur
when the observations or actions of observers in the social system affect the
very situations they are observing, or theory being formulated is disseminated
to and affects the behaviour of the individuals or systems the theory is meant
to be objectively modelling. Thus for example an anthropologist living in an
isolated village may affect the village and the behaviour of its citizens that
he or she is studying. The observations are not independent of the
participation of the observer.Reflexivity is, therefore, a methodological issue in the social sciences analogous to the observer effect. Within that part of recent sociology of science that has been called the strong programme, reflexivity is suggested as a methodological norm or principle, meaning that a full theoretical account of the social construction of, say, scientific, religious or ethical knowledge systems, should itself be explainable by the same principles and methods as used for accounting for these other knowledge systems. This points to a general feature of naturalised epistemologies, that such theories of knowledge allow for specific fields of research to elucidate other fields as part of an overall self-reflective process: Any particular field of research occupied with aspects of knowledge processes in general (e.g., history of science, cognitive science, sociology of science, psychology of perception, semiotics, logic, neuroscience) may reflexively study other such fields yielding to an overall improved reflection on the conditions for creating knowledge.
Reflexivity includes both a subjective process of self-consciousness inquiry and the study of social behavior with reference to theories about social relationships.
History
The principle of reflexivity was perhaps first enunciated by the sociologist William Thomas (1923, 1928) as the Thomas theorem: that 'the situations that men define as true, become true for them.'Sociologist Robert K. Merton (1948, 1949) built on the Thomas principle to define the notion of a self-fulfilling prophecy: that once a prediction or prophecy is made, actors may accommodate their behaviours and actions so that a statement that would have been false becomes true or, conversely, a statement that would have been true becomes false - as a consequence of the prediction or prophecy being made. The prophecy has a constitutive impact on the outcome or result, changing the outcome from what would otherwise have happened.
Reflexivity was taken up as an issue in science in general by Karl Popper (1957), who called it the 'Oedipal effect', and more comprehensively by Nagel (1961). Reflexivity presents a problem for science because if a prediction can lead to changes in the system that the prediction is made in relation to, it becomes difficult to assess scientific hypotheses by comparing the predictions they entail with the events that actually occur. The problem is even more difficult in the social sciences.
Reflexivity has been taken up as the issue of "reflexive prediction" in economic science by Grunberg and Modigliani (1954) and Herbert A. Simon (1954), has been debated as a major issue in relation to the Lucas Critique, and has been raised as a methodological issue in economic science arising from the issue of reflexivity in the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge (SSK) literature.
Reflexivity has emerged as both an issue and a solution in modern approaches to the problem of structure and agency, for example in the work of Anthony Giddens in his structuration theory and Pierre Bourdieu in his genetic structuralism.
Giddens, for example, noted that constitutive reflexivity is possible in any social system, and that this presents a distinct methodological problem for the social sciences. Giddens accentuated this theme with his notion of "reflexive modernity" - the argument that, over time, society is becoming increasingly more self-aware, reflective, and hence reflexive.
Bourdieu argued that the social scientist is inherently laden with biases, and only by becoming reflexively aware of those biases can the social scientists free themselves from them and aspire to the practice of an objective science. For Bourdieu, therefore, reflexivity is part of the solution, not the problem.
Michel Foucault's The Order of Things can be said to touch on the issue of Reflexivity. Foucault examines the history of western thought since the Renaissance and argues that each historical epoch (he identifies 3, while proposing a 4th) has an episteme, or "a historical a priori", that structures and organizes knowledge. Foucault argues that the concept of man emerged in the early 19th century, what he calls the "Age of Man", with the philosophy of Immanuel Kant. He finishes the book by posing the problem of the age of man and our pursuit of knowledge- where "man is both knowing subject and the object of his own study"; thus, Foucault argues that the social sciences, far from being objective, produce truth in their own mutually exclusive discourses.
IN ECONOMICS
Billionaire philosopher, George Soros, influenced by ideas put forward by his tutor, Karl Popper (1957), has been an active promoter of the relevance of reflexivity to economics first propounding it publicly in his 1987 book.[1] He regards his insights into market behaviour from applying the principle as a major factor in the success of his financial career.Reflexivity is discordant with equilibrium theory, which stipulates that markets move towards equilibrium and that non-equilibrium fluctuations are merely random noise that will soon be corrected. In equilibrium theory, prices in the long run at equilibrium reflect the underlying fundamentals, which are unaffected by prices. Reflexivity asserts that prices do in fact influence the fundamentals and that these newly-influenced set of fundamentals then proceed to change expectations, thus influencing prices; the process continues in a self-reinforcing pattern. Because the pattern is self-reinforcing, markets tend towards disequilibrium. Sooner or later they reach a point where the sentiment is reversed and negative expectations become self-reinforcing in the downward direction, thereby explaining the familiar pattern of boom and bust cycles [2] An example Soros cites is the procyclical nature of lending, that is, the willingness of banks to ease lending standards for real estate loans when prices are rising, then raising standards when real estate prices are falling, reinforcing the boom and bust cycle.
In
anthropology
In anthropology, reflexivity has
come to have two distinct meanings, one that refers to the researcher's
awareness of an analytic focus on his or her relationship to the field of
study, and the other that attends to the ways that cultural practices involve
consciousness and commentary on themselves.The first sense of reflexivity in anthropology is part of social science's more general self-critique in the wake of theories by Michel Foucault and others about the relationship of power and knowledge production. Reflexivity about the research process became an important part of the critique of the colonial roots[3] and scientistic methods of anthropology in the "writing cultures"[4] movement associated with James Clifford and George Marcus, as well as many other anthropologists. Rooted in literary criticism and philosophical analysis of the relationship of anthropologist, representations of people in texts, and the people represented, this approach has fundamentally changed ethical and methodological approaches in anthropology. As with the feminist and anti-colonial critiques that provide some of reflexive anthropology's inspiration, the reflexive understanding of the academic and political power of representations, analysis of the process of "writing culture" has become a necessary part of understanding the situation of the ethnographer in the fieldwork situation. Objectification of people and cultures and analysis of them only as objects of study has been largely rejected in favor of developing more collaborative approaches that respect local people's values and goals.
Reflexivity
and the
status of the social sciences
Flanagan (1981) and others have
argued that reflexivity complicates all three of the traditional roles that are
typically played by a classical science: explanation, prediction and control.The fact that individuals and social collectivities are capable of self-inquiry and adaptation is a key characteristic of real-world social systems, differentiating the social sciences from the physical sciences.
Reflexivity, therefore, raises real issues regarding the extent to which the social sciences may ever be viewed as "hard" sciences analogous to classical physics, and raises questions about the nature of the social sciences.
HEY, THERE IS MORE TO READ!
KEEP GOING PAST THE LIST OF REFERENCES!
See also
- Experimenter effect
- Goodhart's law
- Hawthorne effect
- Observer effect
- Lucas critique
- Self fulfilling prophecy
- George Soros
- Thomas theorem
References
2.
^ George,
Soros (2008). "Reflexivity in Financial Markets". The New
Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means
(1st edition ed.). PublicAffairs. p. 66. ISBN 978-1-58648-683-9.
3.
^ Asad, Talal,
ed. (1973) Anthropology & the Colonial Encounter. Atlantic Highlands, NJ:
Humanities Press.
4.
^ Writing
Culture: the Poetics and Politics of Ethnography, edited with George Marcus
(University of California Press, 1986)
5.
^ Roy D'Andrade.
Moral Models in Anthropology. Current Anthropology Vol. 36, No. 3 (Jun.,
1995), 399-408. Herbert S. Lewis. The Misrepresentation of Anthropology and Its
Consequences. American Anthropologist. Vol. 100, No. 3 (Sep., 1998), pp.
716-731
7.
^ BARBARA A. BABCOCK.
Reflexivity: Definitions and discriminations. Semiotica. 1980 30:1-2 ,
1-14
8.
^ Turner,
Victor. Dramatic Ritual/Ritual Drama: Performative and Reflexive Anthropology. The
Kenyon Review Vol. 1, No. 3 (Summer, 1979), pp. 80-93
9.
^ Victor Turner.
Social Dramas and Stories about Them. Critical Inquiry. Vol. 7, No. 1,
pp. 141-168
10.
^ DON HANDELMAN
and BRUCE KAPFERER. Symbolic types, mediation and the transformation of ritual
context: Sinhalese demons and Tewa clowns. Semiotica 1980, 30:1-2, 41-72
11.
^ Richard Bauman
and Charles L. Briggs. Poetics and Performance as Critical Perspectives on
Language and Social Life. Annual Review of Anthropology. Vol. 19 (1990),
pp. 59-88
12.
^ Lucy, John A. Reflexive
Language: Reported Speech and Metapragmatics. Cambridge: Cambridge University 2004.
Silverstein, Michael. "Shifters, Linguistic Categories, and Cultural
Description." Meaning in Anthropology, ed. Keith Basso and Henry A.
Selby. Albuquerque:
UNM Press, 1976. Silverstein, Michael. "The Limits of Awareness," in
Linguistic Anthropology: A Reader. Edited by A. Duranti, pp. 382–401. Malden: Blackwell, 2001
13.
^ Urban, Greg.
(2001). Metaculture: how culture moves through the world. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press
Further reading
- Archer, M. S. (2007). Making Our Way Through The World: Human Reflexivity and Social Mobility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Ashmore, M. (1989). The Reflexive Thesis. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
- Bartlett, S. J. and P. Suber (editors). (1987). Self-Reference: Reflections on Reflexivity, Dordrecht, Boston, and Lancaster, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers.
- Bourdieu, Pierre (1992). Invitation to a Reflexive Sociology. University of Chicago Press.
- Bryant, C. G. A. (2002). 'George Soros's theory of reflexivity: a comparison with the theories of Giddens and Beck and a consideration of its practical value', Economy and Society, 31 (1), pp. 112–131.
- Flanagan, O. J. (1981). 'Psychology, progress, and the problem of reflexivity: a study in the epistemological foundations of psychology', Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 17, pp. 375–386.
- Gay, D. (2009) Reflexivity and Development Economics. London: Palgrave Macmillan
- Grunberg, E. and F. Modigliani (1954). 'The predictability of social events', Journal of Political Economy, 62 (6), pp. 465–478.
- Merton, R. K. (1948). 'The self-fulfilling prophecy', Antioch Review, 8, pp. 193–210.
- Merton, R. K. (1949/1957), Social Theory and Social Structure (rev. edn.), The Free Press, Glencoe, IL.
- Nagel, E. (1961), The Structure of Science: Problems in the Logic of Scientific Explanation, Harcourt, New York.
- Popper, K. (1957), The Poverty of Historicism, Harper and Row, New York.
- Simon, H. (1954). 'Bandwagon and underdog effects of election predictions', Public Opinion Quarterly, 18, pp. 245–253.
- Soros, G (1987) The Alchemy of Finance (Simon & Schuster, 1988) ISBN 0-671-66338-4 (paperback: Wiley, 2003; ISBN 0-471-44549-5)
- Soros, G (2008) The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means (PublicAffairs, 2008) ISBN 978-1-58648-683-9
- Soros, G (2006) The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror (PublicAffairs, 2006) ISBN 1-58648-359-1
- Soros, G The Bubble of American Supremacy: Correcting the Misuse of American Power (PublicAffairs, 2003) ISBN 1-58643-217-3 (paperback; PublicAffairs, 2004; ISBN 1-58648-292-0)
- Soros, G George Soros on Globalization (PublicAffairs, 2002) ISBN 1-58648-125-8 (paperback; PublicAffairs, 2005; ISBN 1-5264-8278-5)
- Soros, G (2000) Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism (PublicAffairs, 2001) ISBN 1-58648-039-7
- Thomas, W. I. (1923), The Unadjusted Girl : With Cases and Standpoint for Behavior Analysis, Little, Brown, Boston, MA.
- Thomas, W. I. and D. S. Thomas (1928), The Child in America : Behavior Problems and Programs, Knopf, New York.
- Tsekeris, C. (2010). 'Reflections on Reflexivity: Sociological Issues and Perspectives', Contemporary Issues, 3 (1), pp. 28–37.
- Woolgar, S. (1988). Knowledge and Reflexivity: New Frontiers in the Sociology of Knowledge. London and Beverly Hills: Sage.
- Sociological terminology
- Sociological theories
- George Soros (Source: Wikipedia)
THAT'S NICE...AND VERY SKINT ON THE REAL JUICE OF MR. SOROS.
HERE IS THE EXPANDED LIST...
Soros Quick Facts of
Life:
- Soros was born in Budapest, Hungary, to a nonobservant Jewish family
- His mother Elizabeth (also known as Erzsebet) came from a family that owned a thriving silk shop
- His father Tivadar (also known as Teodoro) was a lawyer[10] and had been a prisoner of war during and after World War I until he escaped from Russia and rejoined his family in Budapest.[11]
- [12] The two married in 1924. Tivadar was an Esperantist writer and taught George to speak Esperanto from birth
- Tivadar was an Esperantist writer and taught George to speak Esperanto from birth.[13]
- Soros later said that he grew up in a Jewish home and that his parents were cautious with their religious roots
- Soros was thirteen years old in March 1944 when Nazi Germany occupied Hungary.[15]
- Soros took a job with the Jewish Council, which had been established during the Nazi occupation of Hungary. Soros later described this time to writer Michael Lewis
Later that year, at age 14, Soros lived with and posed as the godson of an employee of the Hungarian Ministry of Agriculture. The official was at one point ordered to inventory the remaining contents of the estate of a wealthy Jewish family that had fled the country; rather than leave the young Soros alone in the city, the official brought him along.[17]
The next year, 1945, Soros survived the Battle of Budapest, in which Soviet and German forces fought house-to-house through the city.
- Soros emigrated to England in 1947 and, as an impoverished student, lived with his uncle, an Orthodox Jew
- His uncle paid his living expenses while he attended the London School of Economics, where he received a Bachelor of Science in 1952
- While a student of the philosopher Karl Popper, Soros worked as a railway porter and as a waiter
- A university tutor requested aid for Soros, and he received £40 from a Religious Society of Friends (Quaker) charity
Soros replied, "Well, I had a variety of jobs and I ended up selling fancy goods on the sea side, souvenir shops, and I thought, that's really not what I was cut out to do. So, I wrote to every managing director in every merchant bank in London, got just one or two replies, and eventually that's how I got a job in a merchant bank."[20]
That job was an entry-level position in Singer & Friedlander.
- In 1956 Soros moved to New York City working as an arbitrage trader for F. M. Mayer (1956–59) and as an analyst for Wertheim & Co.
- During this period, Soros developed the theory of reflexivity based on the ideas of Karl Popper
- Soros' experience from 1963 to 1973 as a vice-president at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder resulted in little enthusiasm for the job and a desire to assert himself as an investor to make reflexivity profitable
- . In 1967, First Eagle Funds created an opportunity for Soros to run an offshore investment fund as well as the Double Eagle hedge fund in 1969
- In 1973, due to regulatory restrictions limiting his ability to run the funds, Soros resigned from his First Eagle funds.
·
In 1970, Soros founded Soros Fund Management and became its
chairman. Among those who held senior positions there at various times were Jim
Rogers, Stanley Druckenmiller, Mark Schwartz, Keith Anderson, and Soros' two
sons.[22][23][24]
- In August 2010, Soros bought a 4 per cent stake in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for about $35 million
Some basic Soros' trading principles:
- Some people spend all day talking to their brokers. Soros “prefers to talk to a select few people who can be really helpful ….” Then you need to think and read and reflect.
- To be successful, you need leisure. You need time hanging heavily on your hands [to talk to people, read, and think].
- If you have an investment thesis you like, run it by people who support the other side of the argument. See if you still like the thesis afterward.
- Basically, the way Soros operates is to have a thesis and then he tests it in the market. If the market goes against his position and he feels uneasy (e.g. gets a backache), he cuts his losses.
- What he took was basic information from various sources and kind of mulched it in his mind. Then he would come up with a thesis that most of the time was valid.
- When Soros believed he was right … no investment position was too large. Holding back was for wimps. The worst error in Soros’ book was not being too bold.
- The key to investing is knowing how to survive. That means at times playing conservatively, cutting losses when necessary and keeping a large portion of one’s portfolio out of play.
- If you are doing poorly, retrench. Don’t try to recoup. And when you start again, start small.
- To be in the game, you have to be willing to endure the pain.
- Perhaps Soros’ most distinctive feature, the trait that explained his investment talents the best, was his ability to gain membership in a very ‘exclusive ‘ club that included the leadership of the international community…. Such encounters clearly gave Soros an advantage over other investors.
- Invest first and then investigate … form a hypothesis, take a toehold position to test the hypothesis, and wait for the market to prove you are right or wrong.
(George Soros)
AMAZING BLOG FEATURE
IN THE ROCKING SERIES,
"The Truth About Money."====================================
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